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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd