🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader. A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”