Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
