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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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